Only Three Senate Races Matter This Year

It’s no secret to anyone who’s been paying attention that the 2024 Senate map is extremely difficult for Democrats. In order to come away with “only” fifty seats, which is what they will need to control the Senate if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, Democrats need almost everything to break their way. 

They are defending five seats in swing states that all appear close at the presidential level, which appear to be tightening at the last moment. Perhaps this was always going to happen as partisanship kicked in, but partisanship is the Democrats’ biggest hurdle to retaining the Senate. As close as these five races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are, they are necessary, yet not sufficient. When it comes to who will control the Senate in 2025, there are realistically only three states that truly matter.

Sherrod Brown (D-inc) and Bernie Moreno (R), the candidates in OH-SEN 2024

OHIO

This Senate race, whose polls will close at 7:30 PM Eastern Time, features Sherrod Brown (the three-term Democratic incumbent) against Republican challenger Bernie Moreno. In his most recent Senate race, Brown won by a 6.8% margin, which will be impossible for him to reach this time. Consider Mahoning County, which contains the Rust Belt city of Youngstown. In 2018 Brown won this county with 60.5% of the vote. However, this time he will be lucky to win the county at all, which illustrates that he lacks much of the crossover support he once possessed in rural Ohio.

Crossover support is something Brown sorely needs, particularly if Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump improves on his 8-point margins from 2016 and 2020 in the state. In terms of benchmarks, 2022 Senate nominee Tim Ryan lost suburban Delaware County by 5 points en route to a 6-point loss statewide. In other words, this county has trended leftward relative to the statewide average, and is likely to continue doing so. Therefore, I would say that if Brown fails to reach 50% of the vote in Delaware County, he will most likely lose reelection. But even if he’s up big in the initial ballot drops, do not celebrate yet, for Ohio has a well-documented counting bias toward Democrats.

Ted Cruz (R-inc) and Colin Allred (D), the candidates in TX-SEN 2024.

TEXAS

This is basically the Democrats’ only shot at picking up a Senate seat this year. Florida has become a dumping ground for QAnon conspiracy theorists, and Nebraska just isn’t happening. Deal with it. In any case, Cancun Cruz is up against Colin Allred, having won by a 2.6% margin in his most recent Senate election. Ever since that unexpectedly close race, however, the Rio Grande Valley has shifted hard right. Polls suggest that Cruz is likely to underperform Trump, but he is still generally up by anywhere from 2 to 5 points in the polling average.

 Making Allred’s task more difficult is the conservative migration into Texas, as the 2018 exit poll suggested that if only lifelong Texans had been allowed to vote in that Senate race, Beto would have won by 3 points. Additionally, Democratic voters with the means are fleeing Texas in droves due to the state’s abortion ban. Now, I don’t blame any progressive Texan for leaving the state if that’s what’s best for them individually. However, this mass exodus will make it more likely that Republicans control the Senate and are able to pass a national abortion ban.

If Colin Allred has any chance at an upset, look at Harris County, which contains Houston. Given that Beto O’Rourke won the county with 58% of the vote in 2018 and fell an aforementioned 2.6 points shy, Allred will likely need at least 60% of the vote in Harris to have any prayer of victory. Ideally, he would reach 62% of the vote in Harris, given trends in other parts of the state. If Allred can flip Denton County (which gave Cruz an 8-point margin in 2018) as well, he will be in a good position, but this will be difficult. It is a long-shot race for Democrats, but it will also be an “only-shot” race for them if the third race I’m talking about falls through.

Jon Tester (D-inc) and Tim Sheehy (R), the candidates in MT-SEN 2024.

MONTANA

Jon Tester has won three terms as US Senator from Montana. Objectively speaking, he had strong opponents in his first three races - a then-incumbent Senator (the late Conrad Burns), a then-sitting at-large Congressman (Denny Rehberg), and a then-state auditor (Matt Rosendale). In all three of his previous elections, Tester faced someone holding elected statewide office. This time he’s against a random businessman named Tim Sheehy, and yet he’s trailing in the polls! How can that be possible?

Well, consider that in 2020, Steve Bullock, then the incumbent Governor of Montana, fell ten points short in his effort to defeat Montana’s other Senator Steve Daines. In Tester’s most recent reelection bid, when he won by 3.5 percentage points, he was aided by extremely favorable turnout dynamics in which the electorate had only voted for Trump in 2016 by a mere 3 points. Based on party ID, if Tester had faced the 2020 electorate in 2018, he would have lost by nine points. In other words, he’s not that much stronger of a candidate than Bullock, who got his head handed to him on a silver platter.

At this point, it would be a sizable upset if Tester were to win reelection. If he has any chance at all, however, Gallatin County (Bozeman) is key. In both 2018 and 2020 it cast between 11 and 12 percent of the statewide vote, and in 2018 Tester won 59.5% in the county. Given that Bullock won 55.4% in that county two years later as he lost by 10 points, I would say that at minimum, Tester needs 60 percent of Gallatin County’s vote to stay in the hunt. If he has less than that, you might as well stick a fork in him, as he will be done for. Here’s another fun fact about this race: Given how much outside money has been spent on both sides, it is expected to be the most expensive Senate race in US history relative to the number of votes cast.

Famous quote from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, likely to become Senate Minority Leader once again come January 3.

Of the three very difficult races I mentioned above, Democrats need to win two in order to control the Senate, and that’s if Kamala Harris is able to win the presidential race. I hope Sonia Sotomayor feels happy about her decision not to retire earlier this year, because we could be looking at a 7-2 Supreme Court pretty soon if things go badly on Tuesday.

Refusing to Vote for Kamala Harris over Gaza is Idiotic and Selfish

Memes make everything better, don’t they?

Before I get to the meat of this post, I want to get something out of the way. I do not support the actions of the Israeli government, even if my own government does. I think Benjamin Netanyahu belongs in a war crimes prison, and I support the freedom of the Palestinian people. The US needs to stop selling weapons to Israel so that they can no longer be complicit in this genocide. This is one reason why I have already voted for Kamala Harris.

It is no secret that Donald Trump is incredibly pro-Israel. There’s literally a place in the West Bank called Trump Heights, and there’s a reason for that. The fact that he pulled out of the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2018 was a major contributor to Iran’s proxy Hamas carrying out its October 7 attack against Israeli civilians and creating the casus belli for Israel to invade Gaza and later Lebanon. Trump has literally called for Gaza to be turned into beachfront property. As little as Kamala Harris may care about the Palestinian people, Trump cares even less. Harris could in theory be persuaded to end US support for this genocide; Trump could not be. I’ll admit that if she were smarter, Harris would have disavowed Israel at the very beginning of her campaign. Even on this issue, however, there is a clear difference between the two candidates. If you support Palestine, you should vote for Kamala Harris.

However, the Israel-Palestine issue is not the only one in this election. Even if both major candidates were the same on this issue (which again, they aren’t), other issues matter as well. Consider the fact that if Donald Trump were to win this election, he would pull out of the Paris Climate Accords once more. Admittedly, these accords are largely symbolic, but what isn’t symbolic is the fact that Trump’s Project 2025 will dismantle the EPA and officially pit the United States against the environment. To some extent, this already happened in his first term, but we’re still seeing the damaging effects of that. Additionally, when he doesn’t have to worry about running for reelection, he’ll have a much wider latitude to do whatever the hell he wants - which, again, is kind of the point of Project 2025. Other countries might step up their climate targets to plan around that, but I doubt it would be enough.

Gravestone of Amber Nicole Thurman, victim of Georgia’s abortion ban, taken from The Guardian. Say her name.

Consider social issues as well. Trump’s Supreme Court has already stripped women of an essential right - the right of bodily autonomy. It cost Amber Nicole Thurman her life, and no doubt thousands of other women whose families aren’t comfortable sharing their stories to the nation. Donald Trump did that, and you don’t even have to take my word for it - Trump himself brags openly about killing Roe v. Wade. If Trump becomes President again, he is likely to pass a national abortion ban, which would remove “going to another state” as an option for women who want or need to terminate a pregnancy. Pregnancy-related deaths would skyrocket in that scenario, which is a result I consider unacceptable.

Moreover, consider the rights of LGBTQ+ people, particularly the T. Republican politicians like Donald Trump have flat-out called for genocide against trans people - Trump himself has promised to “end this madness”, a very ominous line in this context. I’ve noticed that many people who say they’re not voting for Harris over Gaza have “trans rights are human rights” in their bio on BlueSky. But if you really believe that, I find it hard to fathom how you can possibly take any action that makes Donald Trump more likely to return to power. If you do not vote for Harris to prevent Trump from winning, and Trump does in fact win, I don’t want to see you showing up at any pro-LGBTQ+ protests. Quite frankly, the day to save these rights was November 5, 2024, and you didn’t show up when we actually needed you. 

There are many other issues in this election in which Kamala Harris is unquestionably better than Donald Trump. If you choose not to vote for Harris, you make it more likely Trump wins, particularly if you live in a swing state such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin. Voting for Jill Stein, or not voting at all, makes you complicit in allowing Trump to return to power. If you’re truly okay with making Trump’s reelection more likely, there’s only so much I can do to stop you. But if you aren’t, I believe you have a moral obligation to vote for Kamala Harris. She might have dogshit political instincts, but she’s still the only choice if you care about the environment, abortion rights, LGBTQ+ rights, or the rule of law.

Halloween May Be Over. The World’s Nightmare Isn’t.

It’s late in the evening on October 31, and I’m currently lamenting the fact that I didn’t acknowledge the holiday. I didn’t dress up, take anyone trick-or-treating, or attend any Halloween parties. Quite frankly, part of that is because I’m an adult now and can no longer go from door to door begging for candy without getting a lot of strange looks. However, I would like to provide a different reason why I refused to acknowledge Halloween this year.

 Forget all those jump-scares like what you’d see in Five Nights At Freddy’s. Quite frankly, the only thing we have to fear is the U.S. election. The fact that we might return to the White House a convicted felon who already tried to overthrow the government to remain in power is horrifying enough. However, that is perhaps not the most alarming result of electing Donald Trump as President of the United States on Tuesday.

 As I write this right now, Spain has experienced devastating flash floods that have killed at least 158 people. If you’ve spent any time following such stories, you’ll know that this death toll is going to keep rising as the missing are found to be dead. As all credible scientists (and every mainstream faction comprising 194 of 195 national governments) agree, the climate crisis is upon us, and humanity has brought it upon ourselves. You may have noticed that one government is missing, and that’s the United States of America, the country I happen to live in. The Republican Party that has so embraced Donald Trump is the only significant political movement in the world that denies the existence of manmade climate change. And yet, he stands an excellent chance of returning to office as a result of Tuesday’s election.

 This is what disqualifies the man most of all. If the United States elects Trump in spite of his actions on January 6, in spite of his COVID genocide in 2020, then we did it to ourselves. However, there’s an old saying that your freedom to swing your arms ends at my face. As horrific as January 6 was, it only affected American domestic politics. The U.S. has no right to elect Donald Trump and inflict the consequences of our climate denial on the rest of the world. History will not judge us kindly if we elect him again. Or maybe they will, because history is written by the winners.

 All of the above is to say that the potential reelection of Donald Trump is a greater nightmare than any Halloween story could possibly dream of. Voters of the United States have no right to return him to power, and if they do, Americans deserve to be sanctioned to hell and back for plunging the world into hell.